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Interpreting confidence intervals
Always present estimate with a confidence interval
Precision
• point estimate is the best guess of the effect
• CI expresses uncertainty – range of values we can be reasonably sure includes the true effect
Significance
• if the CI includes the null value
• rarely means evidence of no effect
• consider what level of change is clinically important
Heterogeneity in meta-analysis
1. Was it a good idea to combine the trials?
2. Too much clinical heterogeneity to make sense?
3. Do the forest plots look consistent?
4. Do statistical tests suggest that heterogeneity is a problem?
5. Present the I2
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